Closing the gap - trend projections to target
The following scenarios use child mortality time series data from 1998 to 2006 to generate projections of the data that would meet the target of halving the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five within a decade (i.e. between 2008 and 2018):
- The first scenarios show projections based on current trends.
- The second scenarios show straight line trajectories from 2008 onwards to meet the target.
- The scenarios are based on assumptions – further information about these can be found by following the links.
- The gap between Indigenous and non Indigenous Australians is measured by the difference between the two rates.
- Confidence intervals have been estimated to assist in understanding the variability in the data. Sensitivity analysis of variations in the quality of Indigenous identification over time has also been undertaken. Note that inconsistencies in the quality of Indigenous identification between the numerator and denominator also affect these data.
Child mortality (children aged 0-4 years)
Scenario 1: Current trends observed over period 1998 to 2006 will continue
Child mortality rates have been improving for both Indigenous and non Indigenous children since 1998 and the gap has narrowed. If the current trend continues, the Indigenous rate will fall from 230 deaths per 100,000 births in 2008 to 188 deaths per 100,000 births in 2018.
Figure 1: Projections based on current trends in child mortality rates, ages 0-4 years, by Indigenous status, NSW, Qld, WA, SA and NT, 1998-2018
Source: AIHW analysis of AIHW National Mortality Database.
Follow these links for the assumptions and numbers behind this graph.
Scenario 2: Straight line trajectory to target
In order to meet the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) target of halving the gap in mortality rates in 10 years we would need to reduce the Indigenous child mortality rates from 230 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2008 to 157 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2018 – around 4 less child deaths per year (a reduction from 130 to 93 deaths over 10 years).
Figure 2: Estimated improvements in child mortality rates to meet target, ages 0-4 years, by Indigenous status, NSW, Qld, WA, SA and NT, 1998-2018
Source: AIHW analysis of AIHW National Mortality Database.
Follow these links for assumptions and numbers behind this graph.
Infant mortality (children under 1 year)
Scenario 1: Current trends observed over period 1998 to 2006 will continue
The Indigenous infant mortality rate has been declining and the gap between Indigenous and non Indigenous infants has been narrowing. If current trends continue, we could reduce infant mortality rates to the same level as non Indigenous rates by 2018.
Figure 3: Projections based on current trends in infant mortality rates, aged <1 year, by Indigenous status, NSW, Qld, WA, SA and NT, 1998-2018
Source:AIHW analysis of AIHW National Mortality Database.
Follow these links for the assumptions and numbers behind the graph.
Scenario 2: Straight line trajectory to target
To meet the target of halving the gap in mortality rates between Indigenous and
non Indigenous children, we would need to reduce the Indigenous infant mortality rates from approximately 9 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2008 to 6.5 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2018 – around 15 less deaths over this 10 year period.
Figure 4: Estimated improvements in infant mortality rates to meet target, aged <1 year, by Indigenous status, NSW, Qld, WA, SA and NT, 1998-2018
Source: AIHW analysis of AIHW National Mortality Database.
Follow these links for the assumptions and numbers behind this graph.
Low birth weight
Scenario 1: Current trends observed over period 1991 to 2006 will continue
Low birth weight rates among babies born to Indigenous mothers have been worsening. If current trends continue, the gap between Indigenous and non Indigenous babies will widen. In order to halve the gap, we would need to reduce the gap by 3 per 100 births.
Figure 5: Projections based on current trends in low birth weight rates by Indigenous status of mother, Australia, 1991-2018
Source: AIHW analysis of National Perinatal Statistics Unit (NPSU) National Perinatal Data Collection.
Follow these links for assumptions and numbers behind this graph.
Scenario 2: Straight line trajectory to target
Significant improvement in the rate of low birth weight babies born to Indigenous mothers is required. To halve the gap in a decade, we would need to reduce the rate of Indigenous low birth weight babies from 12.6 to 9.8 per 100 live births – approximately 134 less low birth weight babies born over this 10 year period.
Figure 6: Estimated improvements in low birth weight rates to meet target by Indigenous status of mother, Australia, 1991-2018
Source: AIHW analysis of National Perinatal Statistics Unit (NPSU) National Perinatal Data Collection.
Follow these links for assumptions and numbers behind this graph.
Antenatal care
Antenatal care time series data is only available for the proportion of women who attended at least one antenatal care session. There is no time series data available on the critical factors of duration of pregnancy or frequency of antenatal care visits.
Scenario 1: Current trends observed over period 1998 to 2006 will continue
The number of Indigenous mothers attending a least one antenatal care session has been improving. If current trends continue, we could meet the target of 99% of Indigenous women attending at least one antenatal care session by 2018.
Figure 7: Projections based on current trends of mothers who attended at least one antenatal care session by Indigenous status of mother, NSW, Qld, SA, 1998-2018
Source: AIHW analysis of state/territory perinatal collections.
Follow these links for the assumptions and numbers behind this graph.
Scenario 2: Straight line trajectory to target
To halve the gap in the proportion of women who attend at least one antenatal care visit during pregnancy, we need to increase the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women attending at least one antenatal care session from 96.6% to 98.9%.
Figure 8: Estimated improvements to meet target, mothers who attended at least one antenatal care session by Indigenous status of mother, NSW, Qld, SA, 1998-2018
Source: AIHW analysis of state/territory perinatal collections.
Follow this link for the assumptions and numbers behind this graph.
If you are unable to access the PDF attachment please email oatsih.enquiries@health.gov.au or phone 02 6289 5291.
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